What drove Trump to victory? Relying on early exit polls is always tricky business, but the short of it is this: While many Americans don’t love Trump, they don’t love their own personal situations more. The upheaval of the Covid pandemic and the inflation that plagued the Biden administration weighed heavily on VP KAMALA HARRIS, who has not conceded the race. Trump was able to trade on the strong economy of his pre-Covid administration and present himself as the fix-it man. In other words, the global anti-incumbent wave came for Democrats, and Harris couldn’t turn it back on Trump.

The evidence of a remarkable political realignment is scattered across the map. Trump made a 25-point gain among Latino voters compared to 2020, according to ABC News exit poll data, winning Latino men by 10 points after losing them to Biden by more than 20. Take Starr County, Texas — 97 percent Latino — which has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1896 : Trump won it by 16 points. That narrative of a “garbage”-driven backlash among Puerto Ricans? He won Osceola County, Florida, an islander haven Biden won handily. Latino gains brought him within five points in New Jersey, a Republican’s best finish since 1992, per Steve Kornacki.

Trump did exactly what he said he was going to do — relentlessly focusing on cutting Democratic margins with key elements of their coalition, unabashedly targeting men of all ages and races, and otherwise swamping what many assumed would be a surge of women for Harris. In fact, early exit polls yesterday showed Harris’ margin with women voters was less than Biden’s in 2020, WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Cleve Wootson and Anumita Kaur report.

If this was the “ boys vs. girls election,” the boys won.

The shifts were dramatic enough to swamp whatever “vibe shift” appeared to materialize in the final 10 days of the campaign, when Harris seemed to regain her footing in the media narrative as Trump reverted to his undisciplined ways, but the actual voter trends just chugged along in his favor.

“Trump was Trump,” one Democratic pollster told us overnight. “He told us what he would do, and he did it.”

WHITHER THE HILL — The biggest outstanding question at this moment is how much Trump’s ambitions will be constrained by Congress. The Senate will be in Republican hands, that we know. What we don’t know is whether centrists SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) and LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) will assume their familiar roles as pivot points around which all personnel and policymaking will flow — or whether he’ll have more room to maneuver with a larger GOP majority.

Read on for more on all the key races, but at the moment, the latter is looking entirely possible: Republicans are in the lead, barely, in Michigan, Montana, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

The House, meanwhile, is up in the air — and will probably remain so for days yet. But we will tell you: Our GOP sources are sounding more bullish than our Democratic sources at this point. Democrats notched some redistricting-assisted wins in Alabama, Louisiana and New York, but the GOP held serve by flipping the Michigan seat Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN vacated for a Senate run, while Democratic Reps. MATT CARTWRIGHT and SUSAN WILD hang by a thread in Pennsylvania. The fate of the majority will come down to a handful of seats out west — including several in slow-counting California.

"We are confident we will hold the House majority when this is all said and done, and we still see a pathway to picking up seats,” a senior GOP strategist told us in the wee hours this morning. “Still more to come in, but what we are seeing is encouraging."

Related read: “House control still in limbo as Trump wins presidency,” by Madison Fernandez, Nicholas Wu and Jordain Carney

What does all this mean for the leadership jockeying to come? If Senate Republicans end up with a 55- or 56-seat majority — their largest in nearly a century, per Semafor’s Burgess Everett — don’t be surprised if a Sen. STEVE DAINES draft movement suddenly develops ahead of next week’s leader race. The NRSC chairman hasn’t made any moves to jump into the race — he’s backing Sen. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) — but Trump could change the dynamics very quickly if he wanted to.

In the House, even a slim majority could secure Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’ s hold on the gavel. Trump, in a jubilant mood during his watch party last night, praised Johnson — signaling he will lock arms behind the Louisiana Republican. Then again, if Democrats take the House, HAKEEM JEFFRIES — the all-but-certain speaker — would instantly become the second most important man in Washington, the funnel through which all essential legislating would pass.